Is North Korea Truly as Advanced in Its Nuclear Weapons as It Claims?

North Korean state media reported on Tuesday that Kim Jong Un has issued a warning about the potential use of nuclear weapons if attacked by the enemy's armed forces.

"All military force will be used without hesitation if enemies attempt to use force against our country, and the use of nuclear weapons will not be ruled out," Kim stated in a speech during his visit to Kim Jong Un University of National Defense on Monday.

However, Kim's use of strong rhetoric regarding nuclear weapons is not uncommon, especially this year. He frequently boasts about North Korea's advanced nuclear capabilities and employs strong rhetoric to intimidate its enemies with the threat of using such weapons. Last month, North Korea even disclosed an unprecedented image of its uranium facility to demonstrate its nuclear strength.

Many experts, including South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, say that Kim Jong Un is trying to gain U.S. attention and enhance his bargaining position by displaying nuclear might ahead of the November U.S. presidential election.

However, the more Kim uses strong rhetoric regarding the potential use of nuclear weapons, the more it brings to mind the saying, "Empty vessels make the most noise."

Given the nature of North Korea as a reclusive society, our access to information about its nuclear weapons is severely restricted. The majority of the information available comes from North Korean state media, meaning that we only see what the Kim regime chooses to disclose. All the images and articles related to North Korea's nuclear arsenal, along with Kim's strong rhetoric, are carefully crafted to persuade us that North Korea is a highly advanced nuclear power.

Despite North Korea's effort to portray itself as an advanced nuclear power, its actual nuclear capabilities may not be as strong as it claims. According to a report by Reuters on May 7, around half of the North Korean missiles fired at Ukraine by Russia have failed and exploded in the air, referencing Ukraine's top prosecutor, Andrii Kostin. This incident could indicate that North Korea's military strength, including its nuclear arsenal, might not be as robust as it asserts.

Thus, it semes to be worth considering the following questions to test our preconceived notions about North Korea's nuclear capabilities: To what extent can we rely on North Korea's claims about its nuclear progress given that our information is limited to what a secretive North Korea opts to reveal? What if we have been misled and manipulated by North Korea's fabricated information to adopt the beliefs that North Korea possess advanced nuclear weapons? What if North Korea's nuclear capabilities fall significantly short of our estimations?

We should definitely not underestimate North Korea's nuclear strength, but we also should not overestimate it. According to Richards Heuer, a CIA veteran with 45 years of experience, in his renowned book "Psychology of Intelligence Analysis," humans have a tendency to interpret information in a way that aligns with their existing beliefs, which can hinder accurate analysis, particularly when dealing with "hard targets" such as North Korea.

Perhaps it is time to question our existing assumptions regarding North Korea's nuclear capabilities to ensure precise intelligence analysis and effective solutions. Is North Korea truly as advanced in its nuclear weapons as it claims?

Author: B.J. Choi, founder of NVNK, obtained his Master's degree in Asian Studies from the George Washington University. He previously worked for the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (WWICS) on North Korea issues.